Friday, November 22, 2013

Celebrate First, Worry Later

Which came first, the bonus issue for civil servants or the latest forecast for GDP growth? Hint: the GDP figures are generated by civil servants. Something else to ponder. These guys are overheads, they don't produce any saleable goods or services. Even the Population White Paper was a pathetic attempt at hard sell.

The official spiel is that the third quarter saw a 5.8% spurt during the months of July through September. As a result, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) now expects the economy to grow 3.5 to 4%, up from previous 2.5 to 3.5%. Even before the full year is over, 2.5 months bonuses have been announced for the civil servants (mid year bonus of 0.4 month plus 1.1 month variable bonus plus 13th month). The 1.1 month bonus rides on the forecast of 3.5 to 4.0% this year, "buoyed by a slight pickup in the global economy and domestically oriented sectors".

The real world tells a slightly different story. Economists warn of the uncertainty of United States Federal Reserve's tapering of its monetary stimulus program and potential flare ups in the euro zone. Others expect sluggishness in Indonesia and China might hit growth. Closer to home, restructuring and stricter foreign worker policies may constraint the extent Singapore can ride a recovering global economy. International Enterprise Singapore went further to downgrade its 2013 forecast for non-oil domestic exports, expecting it to fall 4 to 5%, instead of previous 0 to 1 percent growth. Amidst the gathering dark clouds, even MTI said next year's growth will be 2 to 4 percent, down from the 3.5 to 4% used this year to justify the generous bonus payouts.

What is paid out will never be returned. Bookings to learn classic French techniques of Patisserie from Le Cordon Bleu London will not be cancelled. Santa Claus, a private sector employee, may be retrenched in December, but the other guys are recession proof.

29 comments:

  1. Santa Claus a private sector employee? The Santa Claus who decided on the bonus is a public servant in disguise.

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  2. They ain't called fat cats for nothing..

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  3. This is my home...11/22/2013 12:25 PM

    Hey!.. that Dow broke 16K..! the China PMI is up and up!
    the Japs exports have shot through all quarters!
    Europe is "coping".. for sure the world's growth is intact.. even according to IMF and World Bank!

    Therefore... Singapore being constantly "plugged in".. ( meaning butt plugs up the arse holes) is experiencing fantastic, glowing growth and up, up, up and away GDP numbers!

    STI above 3000 constantly... Changi Airport sees higher pas numbers... SIA sees more loads, KepCorp gets billions of orders.. SPH launches REITs.. OUE launches REITs... SMRT seeks fare hikes ( a given ) Manufacturing sees more growth..

    Wah!... disneyland leh!.. got fireworks, cheerful mouse, quaking ducks.. and wagging dog tails!
    I never ever want to leave paradise.

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    Replies
    1. You almost had me fooled, until I read this at Bloomberg:
      “The risks to the global recovery from the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal deadlock in the United States, the impact of the withdrawal of monetary stimulus from the advanced economies, an abrupt slowdown of investment in China (CNGDPYOY), and unrests in the Middle-East remain prominent,” the World Bank said in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update today.
      The Asian Development Bank cut its forecasts for emerging Asia this year and next last week, as a slowdown in China and India is compounded by concern that the Federal Reserve’s impending reduction of its record stimulus will drive away investors. The Fed last month said it wants more evidence of an economic recovery before paring its $85 billion-a-month bond buying program, surprising analysts who had predicted a $5 billion cut to purchases of Treasuries.

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    2. So how come mickeymouse land at NOL is still bleeding red then?

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    3. row, row, row your boat...11/22/2013 2:27 PM

      Ahhh!! one opposition member is a threat??
      One red ink pedigree means collapse?

      remember... its the sampan 2.0
      not a container ship... ha! ha! ha!ha!

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  4. Folklore surrounding the Barn Owl is that it is a bird of darkness, always associated with death. In English literature the Barn Owl had a sinister reputation when poets Robert Blair and William Wordsworth used it as their favorite "bird of doom." Even in Roman time, Julius Caesar and other emperors suffered the same fate prior to their deaths. In chinese, it's the same symbolism for imminent death.

    If the bird did give out a hoot sound, maybe the people can also celebrate first and worry later...woot woot!!

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    1. While the Greeks believed that sight of an owl predicted victory for their armies, the Romans saw it as a sign of defeat. They believed that a dream of an owl could be an omen of shipwreck for sailors & of being robbed. To ward off the evil caused by an owl, it was believed that the offending owl should be killed & nailed to the door of the affected house. But the clown prince set it free on the Istana grounds.

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    2. No way!

      The owl will probably die before... becos he said so.

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    3. The Feds, World Banks always say they have "concerns'... they concerned since 2008... and has anything changed?

      PAP still there
      JP Morgan still there
      Citibank still there
      NOL still there
      SIA still there
      Old Man still there

      Who ever , whatever is no longer here now... has not affected anything except my job... its no longer here.

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    4. The owl is Gecko looking for her mate?

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  5. If it signifies the End of a dynasty,
    it indeed is worth a national celebration.

    CHEERS!

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  6. What is for sure is that none of our greedy ministers will ever say these bonuses will be a raid on our reserves!

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  7. "What is paid out will never be returned."

    No company or country in the world pays bonuses 3 months before the audited results are out. Plus this lack of clawback when the results finally turn out to be far worse than "estimated" is the clearest smoking gun that interests are totally misaligned between the civil service and its people.

    And mind you, even if China and the global economy tank in next 2 months dragging the red dot's exports down, these folks can always resort to "goal seek" to fill in the numbers. The same way the Fed goose the stock market, the same way the US BLS goosed the pre-election unemployment numbers (to "This is my Home".. I like to drink some of your koolaid man...), the same way China goosed its exports numbers. Sad day how blatant manipulation has become in the public "service". We are cows, we are cows, we are cows.... (to 'This is my home': you live in a farm and think its seven heaven! dumbass you! read some WSJ to understand what the ah soh selling vegetable already know about money printing and how it gooses why Dow is where it is, stop exposing your papig ignorance around).

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    1. Another doomsday preacher.

      If you repeat this often enough for the next 10 years... of course you will get it right!!.. we do you park your money then???... in POSB or under your bed in a milo tin?

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    2. another koolaid drinker; drink enuf everyday is rosy, until it is not, and then what? You sound like you have plenty of money to park in casinos, haha, but naked come, naked go, have money doesn't entitle you to higher temperature at crematorium la!

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  8. The only person deserving of any bonus this year is the bold VP from Jurong West Sec School. Give this woman a thumbs up, like on facebook and clap plus ovation for speaking the mind of thousands of parents and students.

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    Replies
    1. You mean the vice-principal of Jurong West Secondary School at the AsiaEducationExpo (AEX) 2013 education forum who asked, ""How many of our leaders and top officers who say that every school is a good school put their children in ordinary schools near their home? (Only) until they actually do so are parents going to buy (it)"?

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    2. The so called "good schools" is meaningless if the ex students with impressive academic grades turn out to be like the useless PM himself, or like Mah BT, Lim SS, Chan CS, Gan KY,etc, etc .....even ex president scholar HC.

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  9. It is the people working in the private sector that is generating the economic growth and should be justly rewarded. The Civil Service is the consumption of revenue, and civil servants shouldn't be rewarded more . But in Sinkiland, its the other way round because private sector pay has stagnated or even decreased because of intake of FT.
    No wonder civil servants working in the regulatory agencies are more than enthusiastic in meting out fines, penalties for even the smallest discretion .

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    Replies
    1. it should it be digression, mistakes

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    2. you mean transgression ?

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    3. Or indiscretion?

      It would seem that political campaigning has started, and the pork barrels are being opened, because a large part of the electorate is in the civil service or other public sectors. And beating the drums on internet control, GDP growth, fixing and deriding the WP, increasing healthcare and social spending, reforming education, improving toilets (Grace Fu?) etc...one would thing that election is around the corner.

      "What is paid out will never be returned." Maybe in votes, yah?

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  10. why read report from imf and world bank?did they even foresee the 2007 crisis?

    visit goldsilver.com and read articles there.be informed and take step to protect yourself.

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    Replies
    1. Hmmmm... got commodity trader lurking here too!!

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  11. the so called 3Q growth comes mainly from "financial sector and insurance". I suppose that means GDP growing in the stock market casinos and property sales and bank loans? In 2007, US GDP growth was so strong, thanks to financial sector. Turned out to be a big fat bubble and the likes of goldman squids were cheating from their gills. hahaha payback will be around corner la!

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    1. Yeah... there is imminent collapse... this cannot go on forever. Even the word "tapering" triggers a sell off.

      All the numbers are faked... depends on who is churning it out. The fundamentals says that there is no real employment... and the growth is so minimal that it will not pull the economy through.

      Even property prices do not reflect the "true" value of the property itself. The COE numbers are also unreal.
      Each month only 3,000 certs issued. Not a real picture of demand.

      Company reports for this last quarter is not good either.
      The STI is slowly drifting down.. each day minus 15-20 points.. i do not know how the civil service can reward bonus when private sector is tightening belts.

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  12. In 2013, the 3rd Q GDP showed a fortuitous spurt - voila, bonuses
    In 2012, the 3rd Q GDP shrank, but they adjusted the previous 3 months upwards - voila, no technical recession.
    Marvellous. Our economy is so resilient!

    2012: "Singapore's economy shrank by 1.5 percent in the third quarter but avoided a technical recession after growth in the previous three months was adjusted upwards, government figures showed Friday."


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  13. Statistics are but figures to play with.

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