Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Good Money Chasing Bad

Yet another announcement that the interest rate for Central Provident Fund (CPF) Special and Medisave accounts (SMA) will remain at 4 percent from April to June 30. The Government had already announced in September last year that the floor rate for SMA would be maintained at 4 percent until Dec 31 this year. This periodic broadcast is just a painful reminder that our CPF pays a petty 2.5 percent, while the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) (Kumpulan Wang Simpanan Pekerja) across the Causeway declared a 6.35 percent dividend for 2013 (6.15 percent in 2012).

Earnings from savings in the SMA is pegged to the 10-year Singapore Government Securities (10YSGS) yield plus 1 percent, or 4 percent, whichever is higher. The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) website provides the link between CPF and SGS:
Q. Does GIC invest CPF monies?
A. The short answer is that GIC manages the Government’s reserves, but as to how the funds from CPF monies flow into reserves which could then be managed by either MAS, GIC or Temasek, this is not made explicit to us. What we do know from public sources: Singaporeans’ CPF funds are invested in bonds called Special Singapore Government Securities (SSGS) which are fully guaranteed by the Government.

According to its Annual Report, Temasek’s Total Shareholder Return (TSR) for the year as of 31 March 2013 was 8.86%. Compounded annual return to shareholder over the past decade was 13% while TSR since the company’s inception in 1974 was 16%. Impressive.

Moody says different. Explaining why the offer to buy the remaining shares in Olam International is credit negative, Moody's vice-president Alan Greene said Olam's dividend yield of 2 percent in 2013 is "well below" Temasek's overall dividend income yield of about 3 percent in the year to March 2013. Temasek must have a basket of super performing investments to make up for the proposed cash injection into a commodities firm with a gross debt of $9.1 billion and EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation) of just $1.2 billion. Analysts said they did not expect a competing offer for Olam; only fools rush in where angels fear to tread.

14 comments:

  1. Looks like the fools in Temasek have no fear of the treacherous grounds on which they tread. They have an endless supply of CPF funds to fool around with. And with no accountability and transparency they are in a better position than those poor angels who have to answer to God. Any misbehaviour will send them tumbling down to Hades.

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    1. One PAP Minister tried to act blur by commenting that it is not that simple they are using our CPF funds for Temasick to gamble. But how can it not be that simple when the Govt acts as the only middleman for transferring the funds but he never bother to explain ?

      For simply acting just as the only middleman, our Ministers are able to manipulate the billions of profits for their bonuses by sucking the excess profits while losses are not for them to bear anyway.

      And we don't have the right to call them GREEDY meh?

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  2. Can't help thinking that the only motive is to give muddy waters a kick in the face, otherwise it is really throwing away good money!

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    1. Surely buying Olam just to give Muddy Waters a kick in the face is throwing away good money?

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  3. Tony Tan ... no comments? .... I guess these are not the Singapore reserves ....
    Who are we really fooling?

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  4. Fools rush in (Fools => Temasek Holdings), but, what about the "Angels" (Angels => those who control the Fools) who rush in before the fools? Read TRE about possible large scale Insider Trading before takeover.

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  5. What the heck, it's other people's money they are throwing away. If Olam wins, up yours to Muddy Waters, and big bonuses all round; if it loses, hell it's a long term investment.

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  6. this is either a long-term hold or a long-term hole.

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  7. Supposing some big shot connected to the powers-that-be lost big money speculating in Olam shares and then Temasick comes to the rescue, is that considered corruption or a mere coincidence especially if nobody can ever find out the connections because of the use secret proxies ?

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  8. Actually...look at upcoming world events for this year and next....it does not look good for commodities except for strategic materials like sulphur, iron,rubber etc (cos these are always needed in wars and such)....

    As to the FOOL as in Temasek rushing in...whose faces are they trying to save...their own faces or the face of others?

    And it is true...not their money...so they don't really care....so a lesser human being then...

    No wonder man-kind will become extinct...thanks to shortsighted self serving greed for greed's sakes idiots like this...

    A hostile universe laugh as the silly humans do themselves in...without a single bead of sweat nor effort raised by a hostile imcablle universe.

    zzz

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  9. The Olam deal smells. So many Ah Nehs in Olam and Temasek.

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  10. Archer Daniels Mill or ADM, the world's largest food commodities trading house and the gold standard in this sector, is now valued at 10 times EV/EBITDA by the market. Temasek is buying Olam at 11.5 times EV/EBITDA, a company whose debt to equity is 230%!! (or 9 times its EBITDA (proxy of cashflow). ADM has debt to equity of just 30%! Why buy Olam when one can buy ADM shares?

    There is of course some financial engineering to boost THL's poor return in Olam. Much of its stake was bought at $1.5 per share, which was also the price before the run-up since rumour circulated of the offer early February 2014. By making an offer of over $2.2, it automatically mark its existing (pre offer) stake up by 50%!! There you go, that's how you throw good money after bad, but in the short term, temasek investment officers overseeing Olam plus its head honchos can suddenly look forward to a sharp rise in year end bonus, which is coming up as 31st March is the end of their accounting year!

    Huat arghh, turning THL into a gambling house along the lines of wall street with a perverted incentive system benefits the fund managers of THL and GIC. Too bad for you, the taxpayers and citizens!

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  11. It is time for Tony Tan to show he is truly shocked or concerns that our reserves are raided by Temasek to save a dead Olam. Unfortunately, there are certain 35% daft Singaporeans/new citizens? who brought Tony into Istana to act blur. It is time for loud speaker Tony Tan to say something to prove he truly deserves his seat in Istana. Otherwise the croynism ranking in Singapore truly live up to its dismal rating.

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  12. Who are those laughing all the way to the bank because they have been tipped off earlier?

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