Friday, September 23, 2011

A Serious Error

At the Singapore Global Dialogue yesterday with moderator DeAnne Julius, Lee Kuan Yew enumerated the fundamentals of Singapore's success, "One, good governance, anti-corruption, meritocratic, pragmatic. Going forward, if you drop out any of the three factors, you will lose your momentum." Maybe he meant to say "any 3 of of the 4 factors". Or maybe the guy can't count.


Well, one thing's for sure, the guys at the Central Narcotics Bureau are definitely arithmetically challenged. For 3 years in a row, they got the numbers wrong for drug-related arrests. DPM Teo Chee Hean made the mother of all understatements when he described it as "a serious error." These are the guys who determine the 500 gram limit for cannabis that will or will not send someone to the gallows. German international Julia Suzanne Bohl was saved when laboratory tests proved the amount of pure drugs found in her apartment weighed only 281 grams, less than the 500 required for a neck tie party, but how many have died because of "serious errors" in computation?

CNB director Ng Boon Gay blamed it on the IT system, used since 2008, since it did not include unresolved cases. This guy obviously doesn't understand computers - it's all about GIGO, garbage in, garbage out. You feed in only resolved cases, it reports only resolved cases.

Neil Armstrong used a HP-41C (running at 360 kHz) to calculate the descent rate to land on the moon. You can bet the CNB's IT department splurges on more expensive computers with powerful processing capabilities and terabytes of memory that can do a better job. Like highlighting that in 2010, the unresolved cases numbered 1082 (2887 actual - 1805 reported), or 59.9% of the reported cases. That kinda makes them look bad, doesn't it? Like, these guys were sleeping on the job, or evidence of another clear case of incompetency. It definitely can't be the good governance Mr Lee was talking about.

Worse, it could be a cover up inadvertently exposed to the harsh light of day.

22 comments:

  1. So all those $50K annual performance bonuses they've been collecting all these years based on beh-dek KPIs?!? Can claw back all these taxpayer monies??

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  2. Did they outsource their IT to ft ? Just curious.

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  3. I bet if the ISD can hide Mas Selamat's escape, they will. With full blessing from Wong Kan Seng as minister in charge.

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  4. Is this just the tip of the iceberg, just some missing hundreds a year....
    Remember the issuing of lots of additional COEs in the last few years....

    And perhaps in the next few years, we will have additional immigrants, also computer errors. Looks like the circus may just have started! More on the way.... and always computer errors...

    BEAR in MIND... its always the computer errors, but WHO? uses the computer???? who programs the software??? some FT from you know where with codes that our analysts and managers do not know how to debug... HAHAHA

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  5. In simple language, the drug problem is worsening and out of control. Once again, the so-called Home Team has proven to be a pathetic joke.

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  6. I have always have my doubts about our claimed crime free status. Not that we are crime infested, but the 'statistics' released in SIN ,especially those relating to employments, population, GDP , Real estate/HDB have always gave Mr S H Leong plenty to write about. And you know what ? Hardly have I read of any responds from any ministries, PS or PRO.....

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  7. Three consecutive years of mistakes, those guys there were either sleeping, utterly incompetent or negligent. They got 'gaji buta'(salaries without having to do much) and some might have collected bonuses of many months. Who was the Minister-in-charge during the last three years? Is he still in government service? If he is, is there going to be some form of inquiry into his competency for his past performances as well as his present appointment???

    Absolutely disgusting to have them put the blame on the machine. How much more irresponsible can anyone be?

    patriot

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  8. Btw, someone must have got wind of the mistake and it was likely that it will be blown into the open. As such, it had to be disclosed; after a fall guy(machine in this case) was found), in view of possible repercussions.

    patriot

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  9. Another mother of all boo-boos in Wong Kan Seng's watch. For 3 freaking years. Him the man a beer

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  10. http://humyeefansang.blogspot.com/2011/09/what-is-cnb-central-narcotics-bureau.html

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  11. honest mistake lah!!! OR, the figures are actually correct. but due to the statistical migration of our IT systems with spanned over 3 years and only completed recently there is categorization difference which caused the discrepancy.. aiyar.. u all layman dunno one lahh... very hard to explain lahh. just accept it.. haha.

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  12. I thought I can lay low and rest for awhile until I see this post in press, that really riled me up from my grave.
    WTF are the CNB people smoking all these 3 years? This is not 10 here, 20 here, or 30there. Is bloody by the hundreds! In layman terms , it means the actual difference in 2008 = 31.7% , 2009 = 38.9% & 2010 = 60%
    from the fucking wrong data!
    And in real terms, the jump from +79 to +271 cases yoy is 343% ACTUAL INCREASE !!!
    The best part they said their reinforcements had increased becos they based on "projections & ground intelligence" NOT "historical" data. So what exactly did the officer based his "projections" on? Data plucked from his backside?
    Then it gets better, "No miscarriages of justice were done" ? How do you/I know for sure now? How many people were hang or send to the death gallows becos your "weighing tool machine" have miscalculated the kilograms of drugs busted by the traffickers?

    Based on the above wrong data, suffice to say the data reported earlier that crime rates have gone down is also highly erroneous = which based on our citizens anecdotal evidence, it has GONE UP significantly. Those number of water reservoir related deaths , about 15 by far this year are pretty good indicators. But of course, we await patiently for more of their IT glitch reports.
    Now, can I finally go kick the bucket now! #@%*#

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  13. http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.singapore/browse_thread/thread/f661982887278360

    They better give us the real data. With 2m population increase + 2 IRs + growing Hedgefunds/millionaires & their yatch parties, you seriously want me to believe that the crime rates have gone done? Let's call in the ghosts-buster here. Maybe Isabella Loh can apply for the post.

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  14. LOL...picture the screen after reboot says" the system has recovered from serious error"...And what is it again that TCH recently announced?
    Set up cybercrime centre? *facepalm lor

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  15. Hilarious. Was reminded that some great, well paid, elitist workmen blamed their tools...(or their subordinates) after their boss was shafted to some high paying advisory roles when he could not get a equivalent paying job in the private sector.

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  16. There's an old adage that if you can describe a problem mathematically, it's 80% solved, and if you can't describe it mathematically, you're never going to get it right. That sums it up.

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  17. INotStupidAgain9/23/2011 6:30 PM

    I just said that our gahment is so super smart & elite becos they are so infallible especially when it comes to operations-coveredup. Scarly 2 days later, they come up and say they actually do make mistakes..

    Pleease lah, if you want to report mistakes, at least expose something more 'colossal' than these kuchin kurak small cases for singaporeans to gripe. You think we don't know about some of your grave BIG mistakes? How about starting from CPF? Or GIC? Stop hiding behind your OSA backside and come out more openly. Those that truly affects the lives and livelihood of the people if your conscience permit it. Is clear why free press is very bad for corruption. Because you really don't want your journalist to start investigative reporting and people whistle blow to a press entity that you've no control with..that much we know.

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  18. Does that mean the number of cases resolved actually gets lower when the total number of cases is increasing?

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  19. Great! so my son taking PSLE this year can blame the calculator if he failed his math paper right?

    It is an IT problem also, if my son failed his math?

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  20. So whose head is going to roll? Or are they going to just blame it on the computer?

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  21. //So whose head is going to roll? Or are they going to just blame it on the computer?//

    That old WKS head has rolled, in fact, over to become an Economic Czar for China in PMO's office. Soon ST will report Suzhou & Tianjin have recorded 343% growth yoy !

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  22. Our chief success factor is good governance, good governance and anti-corruption. Our two success factors are good governance, and anti-corruption, and meritocracy. Our *three* success factors are good governance, anti-corruption, meritocracy, ruthless pragmatism, and an almost fanatical dedication to mathematical accuracy, and oh, Monty Python.

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