Wednesday, August 28, 2013

No Simple Solution In Sight

According to Occam's razor (also written as Ockham's razor from William of Ockham, and in Latin lex parsimoniae), the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. The principle of parsimony states that one should proceed to simpler theories until simplicity can be traded for greater explanatory power.

Writing to the press, Nick Fellows, managing director of a transport consultancy, suggests a "simple solution" to a problem that had the Land Transport Authority (LTA) polling 3,700 and interviewed another 200 to address the Certificate Of Entitlement (COE) dilemma. Simply stated, there are 535,000 private cars in Singapore. Based on a lifespan of 10 years, and no extension, this equates to 53,500 COEs per year. Release 53,500 COEs a year, he recommended, instead of the current 24,000 limit, which is pushing the price of the piece of paper towards $100,000.

There is another simple way to look at the problem. The COE system was started 23 years ago, when the total population (citizens and permanent residents) was 3.047 million. In 2012, the official statistic is 5.312 million. The number of foreigners in-country have not been included. Unless the kilometers of road have kept pace with the growth of vehicle owners, the nightmare of the grid-lock can only be epic when the population hits 6.9 million.

Havard University's Professor Susan Fainstein was quoted as saying a just city, not just a global city, has three essential attributes: equity, diversity and democracy. Oh, we have diversity, we even have Indians speaking different languages, Tamil and Hindi. On democracy, someone wrote that "it would be a stretch to say that the residents of Singapore feel they have significantly more voice and enjoy more democratic rights today than they did a decade ago." It is equity in private transportation that is even more hurting.

A fixed supply of COEs is only part of the problem, making them available only to those with deep pockets is the other. Pity the karang guni man making the rounds with his beat up Nissan pickup. Soon he will be reduced to pushing a cart, like the sad old women collecting cardboard boxes to stay alive. Meanwhile high worth individuals from around the world are continually encouraged to move into the crowded city. For these guys, what better conspicuous display of wealth than a string of COEs? Everybody else is packed like sardines into the public transportation metallic boxes, straight from their public housing pigeon holes in the sky.

17 comments:

  1. 53,500 x $100,000 = $5.35B

    Where does the money go?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You want a piece of the cake?

      Delete
    2. Why not, money collected from people like you after all, silly person.

      Delete
  2. Some sacred cows cannot be slaughtered - the blind faith in the "Bell Curve" is the guiding light of all decisions spewing from the garmen. Bell curve basically means some can have it all, others have to suck it up. Blind faith of people wielding excessive power will lead to incoherence of thought, such as denying that GST is regressive, or inequality is the natural outcome of economic distorsions of importing labourers, or prioritising university places for PRCs who speak no english (yet if your son fails english or mother tongue then they are not good enuf for the system) or hot money inflow will not cause inflation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What to do ? You have heard them saying high HDB prices and COE not affecting the core inflation as most Sinkies dont own cars and are staying in their own flats.Experts in splitting hairs when it suits them.

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    2. Most Singaporeans you mean, except their sons and daughters starting out in live. You short sighted person.

      Delete
  3. Skeptical Solutions8/28/2013 2:30 PM

    //Unless the kilometers of road have kept pace with the growth of vehicle owners, the nightmare of the grid-lock can only be epic when the population hits 6.9 million.//

    Visionary thinking, SG-style, 2013.

    Think back over the last decades...we could find defamation suits, contempt of court slams, bankruptcy or dishonesty charges, life time detention without trial, chauvinistic slandering or false promotion of rebellious acts etc just to avoid a 2-party state where this sort of "diversity" will get us into a GRIDLOCK, but on a visceral level, we couldn't see the daily gridlocks on the streets, public housing, work places, health & education institutions, not to mention the constant locked down of the public transport systems..!!??

    Nuff' said. Some people has clearly overstepped on the truth.
    No wonder we are the most myopic nation in the world, literally and metaphorically.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVpN312hYgU

      The solution to all these issues was offered up in the movie ‘Soylent Green.’ 1973.

      At the very least, Garang Guni and Cardboard elderlies know one thing. Everything and everyone is a recyclable commodities ;-)

      Delete
    2. Yucks!
      I won't want to eat a 90 year old recycled grandfather.

      Delete
    3. Don't worry, when you get to 90 they'll eat you.

      Delete
    4. Unless of course if you die young and pretty. You disrespectful person. We will still eat you anyway and spit out your small brain.

      Delete
  4. Nick that Fellow is naive. If only the COE scheme (very scheming one at that) is meant solely to control car population and solve congestion. However, he forgot the real motive - revenue generation.

    As long as supply is curtailed, prices will rise. Instead of the extra $$$ going into the pockets of car manufacturers, dealers and agents, why not go into the government's coffers.

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  5. More democratic rights? LOL'd so hard..

    This blogger took the words out of my mouth.

    And whatever happens to the peoples' views in the OSC where they asked for liberalisation of media & political platforms, more openness and accountability from the govt, and acceptance of LBGT as one of us? All conveniently ignored at the NDP rally.

    http://singaporegirl.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/say-something-about-these-please-pm-lee/

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  6. Are we idiots to begin with when we allow car dealers to put in a COE bid on our behalf yet which we are clueless which has to be paid finally out of our own pockets ?

    Those Ministers in charge must also be pretending to be fools when they say it is fair that everyone pays the same price no matter what bid amount the car dealers recklessly throw in to secure a COE in their own interests ?

    And when in the end our greedy Ministers is laughing to the bank when they reap the benefits of extra bonuses, do you think they will act against their own interests to really fix the problem ?

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  7. We had the opportunity to look at how HK and Tokyo control and fine tune their transprt policies. However, those highly paid lemons in our transport ministry are still displaying fire fighting management. Both the HK and Tokyo are also high density cities but I do not see our kind of public transport screw ups there.

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  8. That Nick Fellows, probably a FT, is naïve and simplistic and do not understand the devious Asian minds especially the minds of our super talented MIW. He sees a problem and proposes a simple solution to the problem. He does not know that the problem is not meant to be solved. It is to provide for more good years for our super rich minister.

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  9. The bigger fool on the hill8/29/2013 9:52 AM

    Owning a car is the high point in one's life.

    Particularly here. Why?
    Because it is in our genes. Regardless if you are Indian, Malay,Chinese or Eurasian. The price alone indicates one's arrival into an elite circle. Never mind if its on hire purchase. In fact it indicates one's monthly income as being large enough to afford the monthly payments, upkeep etc.

    And.... the Government reads you so perfectly they twiddle you with their little pinky. They have found an invincible way to collect cash from silly fools who also believe that beyond Changi, Tuas, Pasir Ris.. ugly monsters lurk to eat each Singaporean up, make their wives into maids.

    Even then, each Singaporean needs spurs to move.
    The biggest fool on the hill is the Singaporean

    ReplyDelete