Someone else seems to be putting much faith in a third party researcher to shape the future of our country. Blackbox Research's "YouKnowAnot" bulletin of April 2015 has been quoted as saying, "Our survey findings indicate that current community sentiment points to much greater prospects for an early election."
The interesting factoid is that Blackbox reported that "overall satisfaction with the Government has risen eight points from a year ago." While not exactly annus horribilis, the past year has hardly been smooth sailing, so that finding has to be debatable.
Senior Minister of State for Education Indranee Rajah seems less optimistic, sharing that “I don’t speculate on outcomes and things like that. As you can see in the British elections, one should not really try to second guess what will happen."
Whatever happens, the prime minister has told the media that, apropos of speculation about timing of the General Election that must be held before January 2017, "the baby has already been conceived earlier on." If the choice of analogy is accurate, the nine month clock has started ticking. As any mother knows, the outcome can be a successful birth or end in tragedy, such as a spontaneous expulsion of the fetus due to unforeseen developments. Even Nostradamus would hesitate to bet on a blackbox.
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Just a note, not taking sides either way: Blackbox is asking the people being polled "what do you think will be the outcome of the next election" - this is not the typical survey of "who would you vote for in next election". The latter is based at least on some basic statistical principles. The former is, as you pointed out, asking the man on the street to predict what collectively the voting population would do. Sort of like asking the blind man for directions!
ReplyDelete"what do you think will be the outcome of the next election"
Delete- this is called a cock tease for the people who are stupid enough to pay for these type of surveys
"who would you vote for in next election"
- the answer to this question requires a lot of money
- if you-know-who wants to know the results of this question, he will have to pay for it .... hopefully out of his own pocket
I thought there was a rule that forbids polling before and during election campaigns? What gives? Who paid for such surveys?
Deletehttps://sg.news.yahoo.com/-infographics--how-well-the-pap-might-do-in-singapore-s-next-election-depends-on-where-you-live--survey-145242907.html
ReplyDeleteNo need for astrologer and clairvoyant.
ReplyDeleteLee Kuan Yew will make or break the PAP Fortune.
The General Election, if and hold in 2015 whilst the Sinkies are still mourning and missing the Man, will give PAP a sweet victory at higher percentage than Last GE.
If GE is held in 2016, result could be 50/50 for PAP and All the Alternative Parties combined. Dragging the GE further shall allow more brickbats against the PAP to surface.
The Voters will miss less of Lee Kuan Yew and he will be eclipsed by other news worthy events. His death will be mourned less and not taken as great a loss as it had initially.
Should GE be held in 2017, PAP shall become the Minority in the Cabinet, for by then Sinkies would have faced a lot more challenges caused by the Current Regime. More importantly, by then (2017), Sinkies would have experienced how the Pappies have failed to deliver despite dishing out lots of sweet talks.
patriot
I'm of a different opinion: The more PAP tries to cling onto LKY's legacy for votes, the more their party brand will degrade regardless of when the GE occurs because it will only prove how shallow and out of ideas the PAP has become. Even a die-hard LKY hater will admit he is still magnitudes better than the current crop of clown leadership.
Delete@patriot, I think that the PM is already milking the worth of Lee Kuan Yew's legacy for whatever it is, along with other MPs. If you as much as look at the news about Tanjong Pagar MPs and their one-time walkabout (which only happened now after the old man's death), a lot of references were made to Lee Kuan Yew's "legacy". The PM also constantly thanked Singaporeans for their outpouring of tributes towards the Lee family for their loss. Honestly, if they cannot milk it now, when else can they milk it? They would not be able to milk it now or use it as a PR strategy to appeal to the electorate in 2021, when the electorate would be consisting of a new batch of immigrants and newly minted citizens, as well as a more enlightened or anti-establishment youths who just turned 21 and above.
DeleteMore fake and feel-good news to sway the unthinking sheeps.
ReplyDeleteSheeple who are lazy to use critical thinking for themselves, but relegate that to the Party.
Sheeple who want others to tell them "Leave it to the gahment, they will know what to do" "Trust the PAP, they always keep their promise" "Gahment very good hor, no other govts in the world will do so much" . They merely want a simplistic choice and conclusion like the survey, to hookwinked them into believing that PAP has turned it around so much that people's satisfactions are up. So now, is time to re-vote them in again. The sheepwreck continues.
I will say that PAP will get higher than 65% if GE this year. You may not realise it but many Sinkies pay has gone up a lot since 2010/2011. More Sinkies than ever are able to enjoy a high level of lifestyle -- holidaying in Europe or New York / San Francisco is now as normal as previously going to Australia.
ReplyDeleteJust look at Sinkies around your workplace, MRT, where you're staying, drivers on the roads, your neighbours, etc etc. You think most of them will vote against PAP??!?
I have 5 other neighbours on the same level as me. 3 of them are confirmed pro-PAP. The other 2 have rented out their units for many years already, and I seldom interact with those owners. But logically they will also vote PAP to maintain the foreigners policy in order to support the rental market.
Singapore's national debt has gone up by 120% since 2010, that is according to Mckinsey Global Institute. Household assets have gone up because of property bubble, but net debt has also gone up by same amount. Some do indeed feel richer because their 3 properties have higher valuation, and their net rental income still leave them enough to pay for higher installment of that upgraded BMW. I suggest that explains the overall sense of "feel-good". My brother who has been in construction (and still surviving) for 3 decades, tells me not a single 3rd tier contractor hasn't upgraded to a BMW or Merc or Audi. But its all spending on future earnings, must look good or you won't get taken seriously. What do I know, I am just a dumb unthinking product of the system.
DeleteIsn't there a study about how education level and income is correlated to voting opposition?
DeleteMy experience with uni grads, high-level manager, uni professor and a rich contractor boss pretty much indicates they are clearly not PAP supporters, while the poor auntie types that enjoys donating to the voluntary scam called Singapore Pools usually are.
Don't place too much faith in surveys. Among my circle of friends, I noticed those reading the Shit Times are PAP supporters, and many don't follow on-line media. Therefore the better gauge of how PAP will fare in this election is the readership of the mainstream media. The readership has been going down, and so has the PAP votes in the last 2 elections.
DeleteIs the PM using the same poll expert who accurately read George Yeo's defeat in the 45% range?
ReplyDeleteHere are my 2 cents on the chart -
ReplyDeleteFirst, there was no change between the March 2014 and March 2015 results. So the April spike may be attributable to LKY's passing.
Second, there is typically a seasonal pattern in such surveys. People generally are in better mood during holiday season, between Christmas and Chinese New Year.
Third, the Amos Yee saga may have cooled the LKY spike. I will go out on a limb to predict the biggest ever month-to-month decline recorded in the survey. If true, it will explain why PAP is postponing the imminent election.
we should just tell PAP what they want to hear
Delete- the ground is sweet and we love PAP
- keep them in the dark and feed them bullshit
- it's not as if they will ever listen to the truth anyway
- they only hear what they want to hear
They like harping on the fact that 480k people showed up for the funeral..that means also 3m others didn't.
ReplyDeleteMore Natcon, more surveys, more constructive news pieces..all are good instruments to use. But it wont take away the fact that the party's old style, top down, command and control kind of strict approaches are still inherent in their DNA. IF this nation were to go to 7m or 10m, it is a no-brainer that native Singaporeans will be outvoted with irreversible outcomes. One will be a fool not to divest his eggs in other baskets and leave all the power to a single party who can run roughshod with the people, with no other recourse. In fact, the people have awoken far too slowly to realize they are put in a precarious position to have any lever of power after allowing them dominant seats ALL these time. They simply will leave themselves and their children at a great disadvantage , regardless of how good a party may claim itself to be/was.
As a friend said, the mainstream media forgot to mention the possibility that some of the 480 thousand people who attended the funeral went to "gatecrash" it, to make sure that the old man is really dead, since he claimed that he would come back from the dead, should his successors ever do a bad job. Also, we have to factor the lemmings who finally managed to secure the chance to visit Parliament after being unable to step in as unauthorized personnel!
Delete