Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Nothing Happens By Chance

Tharman told the CNN host that the anomaly of 80 out of 87 seats going to one political party was an outcome, not by design. The guy who equates a safety net with a trampoline - an exercise equipment which paralyzed pole-vaulting champion Brian Sternberg from the neck down after a bad landing - will probably also tell you gerrymandering is a natural event.

The graphic from The Washington Post is easily the best explanation of gerrymandering you will ever come across. In addition to its use to accomplish desired electoral results for a particular party, gerrymandering may be used to help or hinder a particular demographic, such as a political, ethnic, racial, linguistic, religious, or class group. One useful class group would be new citizens fresh off the boat, although Yang Ying may not be counted on to cast the right vote. Then again, he was neither cuffed nor shackled, or sent to the Institute of Mental Health for a check up. He should be so grateful, this Integration and Naturalisation Champion (INC) lauded in MP Intan Azura’s ward of Jalan Kayu.

Not leaving anything to chance, it was revealed in parliament yesterday that the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) was formed surreptitiously two months ago. Thanks to NCMP Yee Jenn Jong's questioning, we also know that the Committee comprises entirely of civil servants - "it is unlikely to have different political parties working on the boundary recommendations". Nothing is left to chance. The thirty pieces of silver which was the price for Judas Iscariot's extracurricular activity is now worth $500. The poor sap should have had the precious metals independently assessed.

29 comments:

  1. The fact that the PM instructed the Committee to have smaller GRCs and to maintain a minimum of 12 SMCs says it says it all about its "independence". That horrid person had clearly laid down his own rules for the son and the holy ghost to follow. He need not even have to get up from the grave to continue his legacy.

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  2. The trampoline is probably a once in 5 years kind of exercise.
    Just like cardboard collecting is a also a form of exercise.

    When you decide first past the post as a system, instead of a representative system, the very system is designed for such an outcome!

    What kind of electoral board responsibility is that when the announcement is all so hushed and secret , wink wink, hint hint?!!? So much for all that Don't ask. Don't tell opacity you get from this govt.

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    Replies
    1. We are all on a trapeze or a tightrope, with a trampoline to catch us when we fall. Haha.

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    2. Think about it. The MIWs and their connections wouldn't be caught dead on a trapeze or a tightrope, because they are always safely on the ground. It's only saps like us who are up there. Anytime they can mount the trampoline to reach whatever heights they want, and then get off. You are so right, Mr Tharman!

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  3. We have a 35.2% President. What a joke! No, this has nothing to do with Gerrymandeering and electoral boundaries and GRCs, but the whole system itself.....from who controls the Election Department, eligibility, first pass the post, overseas votes, etc.....aside from the fixing of the Opposition that continues unabated. Wouldn't surprise me if the PAP gets less than 50% of the votes but still retains it's parliamentary majority.

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    Replies
    1. That's what happened in Malaysia. Even more likely to happen in SG where govt collects the data on voting pattern according to housing blocks. So, they know how prescisely to cut the cake. You don't need a mathematical genius for that.

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  4. With sophisticated electoral science today, it is extremely difficult to overcome gerrymandering. The best hope for opposition is to spend vast sum in electioneering and adopt proven election strategies and techniques in elections elsewhere.

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    Replies
    1. If electoral science is indeed sophisticated, then somebody must be able to work out " minimal" GRCS or SMCS seats are needed on Pap side to retain their their majority? So if all they need is 50/89 seats , it means residents can bravely go ahead for up to 40 seats in parliament ? That will work wonders for the kiasi residents.

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  5. It says "fair timeframe" is no longer a factor for election notice. Harmful to country and political party fortunes wor
    Might as well just cancel election lor
    Why pretend.

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    Replies
    1. They have courage when it comes to politics
      They fear nothing, they dare push the limits.
      They need to have this facade of 'free elections'
      otherwise the country may face international media scrutiny and negative reactions from US, UK, etc.

      That will not be good for business elites in property, banks, financial industry. May face sanctions, withdrawal of loans, .. etc Face, ego, pride is very much in their minds.

      Of course they will twist it to say that it will affect citizens , jobs, security etc.

      They can only be punished from within.. but it will take a lot of effort. People must not be distracted with the road shows performed by all the various parties eyeing a spot in parliament. They just want the MP allowances.

      That is why the electorial boundries are realigned each time. It is to split as many votes and get the opposition parties totally fragmented.

      Result is... only 1 clear winner past the post:

      The PAP.

      Each new electorial constituency is contested by PAP... simple game theory. Sure win.
      it all depends on how much only... but a sure win is already assured.

      The best bet is to vote WP... but they may not contest in all the constituencies. ... so again, they will 2nd fiddle.. without strings ( no sound )

      Fragmentation is assures PAP a win.. its a done deal.

      Wanna bet?

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  6. The filial son of the horrible man has all the dices loaded in his favour with practically every civil servant connected with the election machinery reporting to his office.
    Could it be that his better half who has taken 3 months sabatical leave also calling the shots in the coming election?
    What a happy marriage!

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    Replies
    1. his better half

      The ONE immortalised with a road near Japanese Garden?

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    2. Yes there is a road in old Taman Jurong now known as Jurong Lake District named Ho Ching Road.Our founding father in his infinite wisdom in naming the road then, must have known that someone by that name would scale unprecedented height to becoming the most powerful woman in this part of the world.

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  7. The last GE was the 1st time I voted even though I was past the age eligible to withdraw all my CPF savings if they had not changed the original rules.

    And once in the voting station, I was just wondering why they are so particular that each voter is directed to a certain queue and then subsequently to another queue and then to a certain ballot box based on one's registered address ?

    I suspect this could be the way they can identity how each particular precinct voted and based on these sort of data collated they can draw up the gerrymandering boundaries ? Anybody else suspect the same thing ?

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    Replies
    1. That's an interesting observation. I wouldn't be surprised if there is some sort of silent data curation going on. Perhaps everyone should be prepared to pick any lines or boxes they want to queue instead of at their directions. That's the best way to disrupt any kind base data collection.

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    2. Suspect that they are using the Arrangements at the Voting Stations to work out how voters had casted.
      However, if majority of Singaporeans vote for Alternative Parties IN THE COMING GENERAL ELECTION, WHATEVER THEY DO WILL NOT
      MATTER.

      patriot

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    3. The Next General Election SHALL BE THE FINAL CHANCE FOR SINGAPOREANS TO SACK THE GREEDY ARISTOCRATS FROM LORDING OVER THE PEOPLE. .

      Failing to sack them will make our succeeding generations to suffer at the Hands of the Aristocrats who will morp into Autocrats if they remain to rule.

      patriot

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    4. Why is this data not public?

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    5. The elections are secret in terms of the individual casting of votes, but they can certainly predict trends in terms of groups and blocks, and I am sure that the constant allocation of queues is arranged this way for a reason. Singaporeans have a right to cast their votes as they will though, and the onus falls on them to vote for the opposition. This PAP-majority government needs to have a serious kick in their derriere to prevent any more abuses or flaunting of their power as if they will remain unchallenged. Many people are already suffering on the ground and the media is just compliant with the government to give a picture of sweet sentiments against the grain of the truth.

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    6. Indeed they did gather data but what most do not know is that the opposition parties are also privy to the data.

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  8. No Freak Result7/14/2015 4:02 PM

    You are right Tatler. Nothing is left to chance.

    In the same spirits, voters should also question the Electoral Committee and not leave anything to chance. In order to ensure business/nation continuity, and to avoid the messy transition and handover issues like the previous GRC case, where is the guideline where voters can find the Handover guideline to New Govt?

    In UK, this kind of document is properly recorded and planned for. Where is ours? After running for 50 years, we must expect no less that we such process is due in place by now? A myth does not have to match reality. We dont want to be caught off guard like the SMRT when all lines are down despite million dollars leadership.


    http://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/Transitions%20-%20preparing%20for%20changes%20to%20government.pdf

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  9. The Workers' Party is on the right track.
    Focus on making house calls.
    Focus on contiguous (next to each other) SMCs and GRCs.
    Don't fight one GRC in the east and another GRC in the west.
    When loyal voters move house, hopefully they don't move too far away.

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  10. What if the election deposit is increased to $500,000?
    What if the number of MPs were increased from 87 to 870?
    What if the number of Nominated MPs (guess who gets to nominate them?) were increased to 200?

    Which political party benefits with the above changes?

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  11. Between the LGBT, civil rights, anti-CPF, anti-$7k COE bikers, anti-MRT breakdowns, anti-FTs, can't afford a home crowds, I can see how gerrymandering is going to work this time.

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    Replies
    1. I can only hope.
      But have very little faith in the wisdom & courage of Singaporeans living in Singapore.
      The wise ones have already migrated.
      The ones left behind have a genetically timid disposition.
      If PAP loses two GRCs, I'd consider it a miracle already.
      Let's hope my opinion is wrong.

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  12. Dude what you are describing is a situation similar to Palestine, Ireland, Greece where all citizen who can leave, leave. Personally, I am seeing more and more Sinkie emigres, which is a seachange. Its an indicator of poor governmnet, honestly, who would want to leave their homeland given a choice?

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    Replies
    1. And we are not even at war, or on austerity.
      Says alot about the governance, doesn't it.

      Delete
  13. Samller GRCs? Sounds like someone is afraid to bet big because the risks of losing is much higher now. I.e. for all the remapping, its harder to find a clear cut majority.

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